Posts

Trump Admin - Did I Give Them Too Much Credit?

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Was it overestimation in the statistical sense or just plain blindness? Let's examine what I thought and draw some parallels based on what has unfolded until now. On March 30th, 2025, I wrote a piece (  Trump's Economic Plan  ) questioning whether or not Trump's economic plan was bravery or a brave gamble. Fair to say, about two years in, it is looking like a gamble (at least from the perspective of debt markets). It was obvious in the early days of 2025 that Trump 2.0 was going to be disruptive, with an agenda that sought to put America on the map based on a strategy of America against the rest of the world (China, if you want another synonym) looking at manufacturing. At the time, I, like most people, could not guess rightly what the Trump admin was up to next, given they were flaunting ideas of annexing Greenland and Canada. And just like that, 5 days after I posted, Trump announced his "April 2nd Trump Tariffs," compounding the already brewing confusion in my ...

AI Everywhere - What Am I Doing?

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  I remember many years ago, when I learned about the Industrial Revolution in World History class. I used to sit in class imagining what it would be like to move from tilling the soil by hand to machines doing the tilling. I thought, if I could achieve such a feat, then some of my chores would disappear. Of course, that was only in my imagination, as back then, growing up in the village, we still used our hands to plow the land, except for those spoiled by plenty who used animal-pulled plows. If a machine could do ten men's labor in five minutes, it meant those men could sit around and sip some wine or, better still, use the newfound time to venture into other personal goals. Well, that's not entirely how it all panned out. In either case, there was transformation, with some losing and others definitely winning and winning big. I'm seeing and reading a lot about AI. Questions have ranged from "Will it take my job?" to "How can I use it to be more productive?...

State Of The Markets - What I see 😎

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I spend quite a bit of time on the r/bonds subreddit. I love it because it’s a place where you can learn a lot and be challenged by people who really know what they’re talking about. Since I enjoy discussing how the bond market can be used as a risk barometer, I was recently prompted to give my general take on the state of the markets. It felt a bit like a checkmate; I was surprised that people wanted to hear my take. If they knew what a novice I was, they might think otherwise. Regardless, I don’t like letting people down, so I took my time to craft an answer. I want to share that same logic here, as a few people in my circle have asked what I’m doing at the moment. Image credits: https://www.eyecarebusiness.ca/resources/finance-operations/ What I’m doing right now can be broadly described as a "conservative approach." If you know me, you’ll know I was fearless in 2021 when I first began putting money into the markets. Of course, I quickly learned a lesson that I’ve vowed ne...

I Celebrated US Independence as a Non-American - Why?

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A few people may have been surprised to see me wearing the colors of the American flag today. I have never shied away from doing so, and even before today, I often wore my "God Bless America" hat. I am originally from Cameroon, one of the most beautiful and complete countries in the world. Its beauty doesn't lie in skyscrapers, advanced infrastructure, or architecture, but in its natural richness; it is blessed with a little of everything this planet has to offer. Still, I have found myself in foreign lands, sometimes due to circumstances beyond my control, and other times simply for my love of traveling. The primary reason, however, has always been that where I called home didn't offer me the room to chase my dreams. I know people who never left home and still reached commendable heights, so I often self-criticize. I admit that I wasn't smart enough to traverse the difficulties and become who I wanted to be while still in my country. Migration is ingrained in the...

Zero Sum Game - My Loss Is Your Win

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I stopped at a red light today, about to make a left turn. A man was sitting there with a sign that read, "Help, I'm going through tough times." If you've been reading this blog, you know too well that I pondered those words a lot. I had a rush of emotions: one part of me was asking, "What could he be going through?" and another part was wondering, "What if he's a drug addict?" I had so many thoughts and emotions rushing through me that I just took a deep breath, reached into my wallet, and gave all the cash I had. It wasn't much, as it was mostly one-dollar bills. I looked into my side mirror and saw about five other people call him over to hand him cash, with one person handing him an apple. He immediately started eating the apple, and I almost caused a traffic jam because I spent about 10 seconds just watching him in my side mirror. As I drove away, I remembered reading this morning that Elon Musk’s company, SpaceX, was potentially headi...

Did You Know - What you demand is what someone can supply?

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This is the first post of the second half of the year, and I'm glad to be writing it this early. For starters, I trust you’re having an exciting start. Hold on to whatever you're dreaming of and working towards. Time is your ally, and you need to believe that. As I arrived at my workplace this morning, an elderly man named Frank was out for a walk, and we had a short chat. He told me he just came out of surgery and had metal inserted into his knee. He was walking just fine and said, "Well, at 87, I'm glad to still be this active." I paused in amazement and asked, "Sir, what is the secret?" He laughed and replied, "I don't know, maybe walking a lot." I got into the office and prompted a colleague to look outside and guess Frank's age; he guessed "mid to late 70s." That was close, but even he could not believe Frank was in his late 80s, looking strong and walking faster than most young people I know. So you see, if you do it rig...

I'm Not Buying Stocks As Before - Why?

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The natural sciences have laws that guide everything and make it easier to predict an outcome when certain actions are taken. For example, it's possible to calculate the time it would take a car traveling at a certain speed to cover a specific distance. Many such things have already been demonstrated to us by the giants of the past. Sometimes, however, you have to self-critique and "checkmate" yourself. Many are told to take it easy on themselves, but when you're really growing, being hard on yourself is not necessarily a bad thing.  Image by Google Gemini There's a vast literature of empirical evidence that now tells us how accurate this is. Please ignore or skip the equation below if you hated math back in school and still hate it to this day lol.  This equation is simply saying that your expected investment returns are the sum of the risk-free rate plus the extra return you get for taking on market risk. The "Beta of the portfolio" is simply what you...